Premier League: Is top-flight possession football on way out?
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Is Premier League possession football on way out?
Image source: Getty Images
By Umir Irfan
Football tactics correspondent
Published 40 minutes ago
In the early 2000s, Premier League defences tried to make the pitch as small as possible, giving their opposition less space to score in. Coaches therefore encouraged their attackers to play quickly, taking advantage of open space that saw them face fewer defenders. Logically, this made total sense.
It was Pep Guardiola's influence that, in part, flipped this logic on its head over the last decade. His Manchester City sides looked to force teams back into a compact defence, a challenge that in theory should be harder to break down. The counter logic was that they were forcing opponents to give them a familiar challenge they were prepared for.
City's defenders also had big spaces to cover, often standing at the halfway line. But for Guardiola, those spaces were less worrying if the ball stayed near the opposition's goal for as long as possible. So why now are teams that dominate the ball dropping points?
Across this season's opening 50 Premier League matches, teams recording at least 60% possession have won only 36.4% of those games, while in 2023-24, the figure was 53.5%.
Does this suggest possession football is on the way out? Well, the answer isn't that simple. Are teams winning because of their low possession, or having less possession because they have taken the lead early? There could be some truth in both answers.
Let's use Xabi Alonso's Chelsea as a case study. They won their opening games against Fulham and Brighton - 3-2 and 4-3 respectively - with the minority of possession, then drew 2-2 with Hull and lost 3-0 to Brentford despite having considerably more of the ball.
Against Brighton, Chelsea's 25.6% possession and 146 successful passes were their lowest recorded figures in a Premier League match, with records beginning in 2003-04. And yet, the Blues scored four goals. For three of them, accelerating play from throw-ins and counter-attacks allowed their direct attackers to find space against fewer defenders.
This dynamic can partly be explained by Fabian Hurzeler's Brighton wanting to dominate the ball - with only Manchester City averaging more possession than the Seagulls this season - which played into Chelsea's hands. Joao Pedro, Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto and Morgan Rogers boast skillsets suited to transition-heavy football, and the low possession against Brighton helped them play to their strengths.
Image caption: By breaking quickly, Chelsea scored their third against Brighton in what became a two-against-two situation.
Issue of philosophy for top teams
Counter-attacking comes with a stigma. It is more accepted underdogs like newly promoted Hull will play this way. For bigger teams, there is an expectation to eventually control the game with the ball. This makes a low-possession approach harder to sell long term, even if the players might look better conceding possession. And that disconnect between style and expectations could be why we're seeing these shifts in Premier League football.