Super El Niño: Potential Heat-Related Deaths in the Global South
Super El Niño Could Cause 451,000 Heat Deaths
Umer Jamshaid | September 24, 2026 | Washington (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News / WAM)
This year's powerful El Niño event is projected to lead to a significant increase in heat-related deaths worldwide. According to a report by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab, it could result in approximately 451,000 additional fatalities between June 2026 and February 2027 compared to a normal year.
The report highlights that global land temperatures are expected to be around 1.2°C above average during this period, resulting in a 44% higher frequency of extremely hot days than usual. Researchers estimate that the most severe impact will be felt in the Global South.
Key Findings:
- Sahel Region: The Sahel region, encompassing countries like Niger, Chad, Nigeria, and Sudan, is projected to record around 66,800 additional heat-related deaths in the coming months.
- Nigeria: This single country could see as many as 31,400 additional deaths.
- Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia: Combined, these countries are estimated to experience around 19,400 additional heat-related fatalities.
The report's authors describe the intense temperatures associated with this El Niño as a "postcard from the future," reflecting potential conditions that could become more frequent as global warming progresses. They emphasize that targeted emergency measures in vulnerable regions could prevent tens of thousands of deaths during this period.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and an economist at the University of Chicago, noted that these projections can assist decision-makers in prioritizing actions to save lives.