Where the US Midterm Elections Will Be Won and Lost
Americans go to the polls on 3 November to decide the course of Donald Trump's presidency for the final two years. Thousands of races are contested across the US, but the key battles will be for the House of Representatives and Senate, making up Congress.
Here's a visual guide to understanding where power could shift:
Low Approval Ratings for Trump
The Democratic Party has a chance to retake Congress due to President Trump's low approval rating, which stands at about 37%. This is a stark contrast to 8 years ago when Trump's approval was higher at 43% at this stage of his first term.
The Battle for the House
Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House with 218 representatives, plus one independent. All 435 seats are up for election, but most are considered safe for one party or the other.
- Only 21 districts are classified as "toss-ups" by The Cook Political Report.
- 15 of these are held by Republicans and 6 by Democrats.
- Democrats need to win 5 of these toss-ups along with 28 districts considered likely or leaning Democratic to secure control of the House.
Key Issues and Races
Historically, midterm elections see a high number of seats flip from one party to the other. This year, several key races and issues could be decisive:
- Healthcare: The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) remains a contentious issue, with Republicans aiming to repeal or replace it.
- Immigration: Border security and immigration reform are likely to be prominent, with debates over the future of DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) and the US-Mexico border wall.
- Economic Policies: The state of the economy, including job creation, inflation, and trade policies, will be a major factor.
Remember that this is a dynamic situation, and race outcomes can change quickly.