Who will win the midterms? How the US elections will be won and lost - BBC News
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Midterms come at bad time for Trump
One of the reasons the opposition Democrats have a chance to take back Congress is the president's low approval rating, which is a good indicator for how well his party could perform.
He began his second term as president with an approval rating of just over 50%, according to polling resource website Silver Bulletin, but it quickly fell into the 40s.
It was hovering around 42% when Trump decided to launch air strikes with Israel against Iran at the end of February this year but it fell below 40% shortly afterwards. It is currently sitting at about 37%.
Eight years ago, Trump's approval rating was significantly higher at this point in his first term, at 43%. Joe Biden's at the same point in his term was at 40%.
The battle for the House
The current Republican majority in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber, is as thin as it gets - they have 218 representatives, which is the exact number needed to have control, plus one independent who votes with them.
Members of the House serve a two-year term so all 435 seats are up for election in November. But most districts are not considered competitive because the party that holds them has such solid support that there is only one likely winner.
The Cook Political Report suggests that just 18 districts are "toss-ups" that could be won by either party.
Historically, the midterms see a high number of seats changing hands in the House, usually in a protest against the White House. The average number lost by the president's party is 27, according to data going back to 1934. Of those 23 elections, the president's party has only made gains in three.
The battle for the Senate
The Republicans have a slightly stronger hold on the Senate. They hold 53 of the 100 seats while the Democrats have 45 and two independents who also vote with them.
Thirty-five seats are up for grabs in November, according to the Cook Political Report.