Why Canada is preparing for a (Longshot) US invasion
BBC News explores the unlikely scenario of a US invasion of Canada.
Prime Minister Mark Carney's Preparedness
Prime Minister Mark Carney admitted last week that he has prepared for a once-unthinkable scenario - a US invasion. While considering the risk low and likelihood highly improbable, he told the New York Times that it was his responsibility to contemplate all possibilities given the shifting dynamics between the US and Canada under the Donald Trump presidency.
"That's just risk management," Carney stated.
Factors Contributing to the Scenario
Trump's global tariffs and repeated statements about making Canada the 51st state have prompted Canada to engage in "war gaming" an American attack. In 2025, Trump himself downplayed the possibility of force against Canada, instead favoring economic pressure as a means to achieve political aims.
"President Trump has done more than anyone to protect the great people of Canada," the White House declared in a statement to the BBC this week.
Expert Analysis and Public Perception
Military experts consulted by the BBC consider an invasion highly improbable, citing the extensive collaboration between the two countries on defense. They point out that Canada and the US are both members of Nato and NORAD, facilitating joint Arctic defense missions and intelligence sharing.
Yet, a Leger poll in January 2026 revealed over 30% of Canadians believed a US invasion was likely, reflecting a heightened sense of unease despite expert assurances.
Historical Context
Historian Tim Foran highlights the historical tension between Canada and the US, explaining that fear of American expansionism is integral to Canadian identity. Despite their close ties in recent decades, relations were not always amicable, with the US attempting to invade British North American colonies (including Quebec City) in the 18th and 19th centuries.