2026 Rugby League World Cup: What England need to avoid group stage exit - BBC Sport
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68-point swing and a Tonga win - how England avoid World Cup exit
Image source: Getty Images
By Emma Smith, BBC Sport journalist
Published 52 minutes ago
Sixty-eight. That is the magic number for England. For Brian McDermott's side to reach the semi-finals of the Rugby League World Cup, a specific series of events needs to happen next weekend.
On the backfoot since being humbled 32-10 by Tonga in their opening game, England responded with an impressive 82-0 victory over France to keep their dreams alive.
It means England need to beat co-hosts Papua New Guinea in their final group match in Wollongong next Friday – then hope Tonga beat Samoa, two days later in Sydney.
If Samoa win:
England will be eliminated because of their inferior head-to-head record against Tonga. They will also be knocked out if Tonga and Samoa draw.
But if Tonga win:
It comes down to points difference. England's difference, after the Tonga loss and France win, is +64. Samoa, following their victories over France and PNG, is +132 – 68 better than England.
So, 68 is the number to remember.
England's hope:
Beat PNG by 68 points or more, and any Tongan win is good enough. Less than 68, and they must hope Tonga are inspired by Pacific rivalry.
England have a rich history in the Rugby League World Cup, never finishing outside the top four in 16 previous tournaments, and always reaching the semi-finals in formats that include them.
'I'm not sure what else we could have done'
Image source: Getty Images
Tonga and Samoa are both above England in Group B-C with two wins from two.
"What we have done today is enormous, given the context," said McDermott.
"We had to win big, and we have done that without getting hot. Everything was measured and planned.
"Whatever the results next week, we have to finish strong. If we go home next week, we will be disappointed, but I'm not sure what else we could have done."
McDermott's comments may also touch on the controversial format of this year's men's World Cup, which features an unbalanced group stage.