How Premier League Teams Have Really Started - According to Expected Goals (xG)
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How have Premier League teams really started?
At this stage last season, Liverpool were top with five wins out of five, while Tottenham were in third place. However, their final positions were fifth and 17th, demonstrating that the early-season table can be misleading.
While any statistics should be taken with caution due to small sample sizes and varying team difficulties, expected goals (xG) provides a more accurate picture of potential season outcomes. xG measures how much teams have dominated games based on shots taken and faced, considering shot quality, finishing, and luck.
Premier League History: Dominance and Points
Historically, teams that dominate games tend to accumulate more points throughout the season.
Excluding Penalties
It's crucial to exclude penalties as refereeing decisions can distort team performance evaluations.
- Arsenal: Despite suffering a large defeat last weekend at Brighton, they lead in xG difference, indicating the best overall performance so far.
- Manchester City: Close behind Arsenal in terms of game dominance.
- Brentford: Unbeaten and surprisingly dominant based on xG.
- Manchester United: While fluctuating between good and poor performances, their xG difference places them among the top three.
Surprising Starts
Some established teams like Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have outperformed their league position, while promoted clubs Hull and Ipswich are also making solid early-season statements.
Attacking Prowess
Brighton boasts the best attack based on xG, followed by Manchester City, Brentford, and Manchester United. Surprisingly, eight teams have higher xG than champions Arsenal, with Liverpool and Chelsea also performing well in this regard.