Premier League: Is top-flight possession football on way out?
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In the World of Football Tactics
In the early 2000s, Premier League defenses adopted a strategy to minimize the pitch, limiting scoring opportunities for opponents. Coaches encouraged quick play, capitalizing on open spaces created by such tactics. Logically, this approach seemed sound.
However, Pep Guardiola's influence over the last decade challenged this logic. His Manchester City sides aimed to force opponents into compact defenses, a strategy that, theoretically, should be easier to defend against. City's defenders often positioned themselves at the halfway line, covering vast spaces. Yet, for Guardiola, the priority was to keep possession near the opposition's goal as long as possible, ensuring the opposing team couldn't score.
So, is possession football fading? The data suggests otherwise:
- In this season's opening 50 Premier League matches, teams with at least 60% possession won only 36.4% of those games.
- In 2023-24, the winning percentage for such teams was 53.5%.
But does this mean low possession leads to wins? Or do teams win despite having less possession due to early lead advantages? The answer is multifaceted.
Case Study: Chelsea's Approach
Xabi Alonso's Chelsea provides an intriguing example. They won their first two matches with low possession (25.6% against Brighton) but struggled in subsequent games despite higher possession. Against Brighton, Chelsea recorded their lowest possession and successful passes in a Premier League match since 2003-04, yet they scored four goals.
This strategy can be attributed to Brighton's dominance in ball possession, which played into Chelsea's hands. Players like Joao Pedro, Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, and Morgan Rogers thrive in transition-heavy football, and their low-possession approach emphasized these strengths.
The Philosophy Gap
Counter-attacking, while effective for underdogs, carries a stigma among top teams, which are expected to control games with possession. This creates a philosophical disconnect, making it challenging to advocate for low-possession tactics long-term, even if they might yield better results in certain players' hands.