The trail of clues: Is our planet heating faster than we thought?
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The trail of clues that our planet might be heating faster than we realised
Published 30 minutes ago by Justin Rowlatt, Climate Editor
This July, during Britain’s record-breaking hot summer, a curious row broke out on social media regarding climate science. Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice shared an article from The Telegraph claiming that heatwaves are caused by reduced pollution, specifically suggesting that cleaner air was to blame for higher temperatures rather than carbon dioxide.
Tice’s claim was incorrect, as carbon dioxide is indeed the primary driver of global warming. However, the science he misinterpreted holds significance—it delves into the complex relationship between air pollution and climate change.
Fossil fuels burned over the past century produce two distinct types of pollution:
- Carbon dioxide (CO2): Known for its role in warming the Earth’s atmosphere.
- Sulphur pollution: Creates vast numbers of tiny particles that reflect sunlight, counteracting some of the warming effect of CO2.
Thanks to global clean-air policies, sulphur emissions have been declining sharply while carbon dioxide emissions continue near record highs. Scientists now believe this loss of cooling from sulphur pollution might be slightly accelerating global warming.
Recent Climate Trends
The past three years were the warmest ever recorded, and according to the Met Office, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.
Sensitivity to Greenhouse Gases
A key question arises: Is our planet more sensitive to greenhouse gases than initially thought? If so, could climate change be progressing faster than anticipated?
Reto Knutti and his team at ETH Zurich have analyzed global temperature data, stripping out natural fluctuations like El Niño. Their findings suggest a clear acceleration in the rate of warming. A separate study this year reached similar conclusions after considering various natural influences.
Sulphur aerosols, formed from burning coal and oil, play a role in this scenario. These particles act similarly to dust on greenhouse windows, reflecting sunlight and initially cooling the planet. However, as sulphur emissions decrease, this cooling effect diminishes, potentially contributing to increased warming.
Dr. Øivind Hodnebrog, a principal researcher at Cicero, has studied these dynamics extensively. His work highlights the intricate interplay between air pollution, greenhouse gases, and climate change, emphasizing the need for further research and policy actions to address these complex issues.
