Which War is Having the Biggest Impact on Diesel Prices: Iran or Ukraine?
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Which war is having the biggest impact on diesel prices - Iran or Ukraine?
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Ben Chu Policy and analysis correspondent, BBC Verify
US President Donald Trump has blamed Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries for the global reduction in diesel exports and the spike in prices around the world, saying President Volodymyr Zelensky "wants to make problems for the world".
"He'd better damn well stop," Trump said, before suggesting Ukraine should "get a new leader who can make a deal".
But others have pointed the finger of blame at the US-Israel war with Iran for cutting exports of the refined fuel from the Gulf region.
After Trump announced a controversial deal to import diesel from Russia - promising "lower prices for Americans" - BBC Verify has looked at what has been affecting supplies of the fuel in recent months and years.
What's happened to global diesel prices?
While rising cost of diesel directly hits drivers, there's a wider concern because of its use in transport chains. Any increase in transport costs could be fed through to consumers.
Average US retail diesel prices on 5 October were $6.20 (£4.69) per gallon, just shy of the record of $6.50 per gallon seen on 21 September, according to the latest figures from the US Energy Information Administration.
Before the war with Iran a gallon of diesel in the US cost around $3.50.
Similarly, average UK diesel prices are currently touching record highs, with data from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero showing that on 5 October a litre cost 199p.
In 2025, global exports of diesel were around 6.8 million barrels per day, according to shipping data company Kpler. By September 2026, this had fallen to 5.8 million barrels per day – a decline of approximately one million barrels per day.
Some countries, notably the US, have increased their diesel exports over the past year, but overall net global exports have declined.
Analysts attribute this drop to the war with Iran, which has significantly reduced supplies from Gulf states.