Why Canada is preparing for a (long shot) US invasion
BBC News explores the unexpected scenario of a potential US invasion of Canada, highlighting Prime Minister Mark Carney's preparations despite low risk and improbable likelihood.
Background
- Trump's Impact: Donald Trump's global tariffs and aspirations to make Canada the 51st state have driven Canada to simulate an American attack.
- Past Tension: Tim Foran, a researcher with the Canadian War Museum, notes Canada's historical resistance to US expansionism, dating back to the 18th and 19th Centuries.
Expert Analysis
- Unlikely Scenario: Military experts consider an invasion highly improbable, citing the close collaboration between Canada and the US in defence, including membership in Nato and shared intelligence under NORAD.
- Alternative Threats: Lt-Gen Christopher Coates suggests a potential US attack might begin with cyberwarfare rather than a direct military assault.
Public Perception
- Polls: A Leger poll in 2025 indicated over 30% of Canadians believed a US invasion was likely, following the US capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
Key Points
- Risk Management: Carney's preparations are framed as risk management, considering all possibilities in light of shifting US-Canada relations.
- Economic Pressures: The White House attributes Trump's global tariffs as a primary reason for Canada's war games, asserting that he has done more than anyone to protect Canadians.
This scenario, though seemingly far-fetched, underscores the complexities of the US-Canada relationship and the lengths to which Canada is going to prepare for potential threats.