Why Rugby League Needs a Tonga-Samoa World Cup Final
With blow-out wins and a convoluted format, the men's group stage at the 2026 Rugby League World Cup did little to dissuade cynics about the unhealthy state of the international game. From Group A, Australia and New Zealand came through as expected and are widely tipped to face off in the final on 15 November. But from the strange lands of Group B-C, two beacons of hope have emerged. Tonga will face New Zealand after winning all three group matches, before Samoa face Australia in a repeat of the 2022 final.
And if either goes all the way, it would be good for international rugby league, shaking up the game in the same way Wakefield's Grand Final win has for the Super League – proving there is still room for surprises in rugby league.
"Could this be a dress rehearsal for the final? I hope so," former Bradford Bulls head coach Matthew Elliott told BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra after Tonga and Samoa's riveting Group B-C match, won 20-18 by the Tongans. "I shouldn't say that out loud as an Aussie but I hope so."
History suggests this scenario is unlikely, but not impossible. The first semi-final, New Zealand v Tonga, is a match with a dramatic recent history. Tonga beat New Zealand 25-14 in an epic Pacific Championships match two years ago to reach their first-ever elite tournament final. Last year, their meeting was overshadowed by a head injury to Tonga back-rower Eli Katoa, who needed emergency brain surgery after receiving three separate concussions and has not played since.
Tonga were semi-finalists in 2017, winning their group after stunning New Zealand 28-22 in the group stage. In the last four they were only narrowly defeated by England, 20-18, scoring three tries in the final seven minutes to give the English a huge fright in their best previous World Cup effort.
Samoa have gone one further and were surprise runners-up four years ago, having not previously gone beyond the quarter-finals since first appearing at the World Cup in 1995. They were beaten 60-6 by England in their opener but fought through to the semi-finals, where they stunned the hosts 27-26 in a golden point win at Emirates Stadium. At Old Trafford they were overpowered by Australia but not overawed, losing 30-10.
'It was an absolute cracker'
In doing so Samoa became only the sixth different team to reach a men's final after Australia, New Zealand, Great Britain, England, and France, in 16 editions. Australia have won 10 of the last 11 World Cups, including the last three, with New Zealand winning the other. Such dominance at the supposed peak of the sport, in a tournament reduced from 16 to 10 teams this year, indicates a gap growing between haves and have-nots.
Of the outsiders, Samoa and Tonga can shake that up. The teams met at the quarter-final stage of the last Rugby League World Cup, with Samoa winning a classic 20-18 in Warrington. Tonga won by the same scoreline three days ago, in similarly exhilarating fashion.
"The occasion was unbelievable," Samoa head coach Ben Gardiner said after the game. "I looked down at the start of the game and I've never seen so many people on the sidelines at a footy match in my life. It was a sensational occasion, and international rugby league is about that. It's about fanfare and it's about creating opportunities for our fans to come and watch our nations play. It was an absolute cracker."
"I think that was about five or 10 levels above NRL tonight," Tonga half-back Isaiya Katoa told Premier Sports of the group match.