UK Weather: Stormy Weather Possible as Jet Stream Roars to Life
BBC Weather
Chance of storms this week as Atlantic jet stream roars into life
The UK may see its first named storm of the autumn as forecasts show the potential for a deep area of low pressure to cross the UK later this week.
A strengthening jet stream, triggered by temperature contrasts across North America, will cause turbulent conditions to develop. All areas will experience rain at times, including those currently in drought, but the amounts of rain will depend on the exact track of a stormy low pressure system later in the week.
Quiet and Warm Autumn So Far
Autumn has been relatively calm in many areas with little disruptive weather and rainfall has remained deficient across a huge swathe of England and Wales.
Parts of Herefordshire have seen only a tenth of the rainfall typically expected by this stage of October, and the dry conditions persist for much of England. The Environment Agency recently declared severe drought for parts of southern England.
This month continues the warming trend seen so far this year, with mean temperatures between 1 and 3 Celsius above normal for October.
Frosty Start to the Week
Over the weekend, all four nations saw their lowest temperature of autumn so far. Parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland dropped to minus 4 Celsius on Sunday morning with minus 2 Celsius recorded in northern England while Wales registered its first air frost of the season.
Turbulent Weather on the Horizon
After a frosty start in Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday, it will turn more cloudy. Overnight rain in England and Wales will largely die out and skies will brighten. It should be slightly milder to start the week.
Expect cloudy skies on Tuesday with rain developing again in England, Wales, and Scotland. Northern Ireland may be dry with some sunshine, before another band of rain arrives from the Atlantic by the end of the day.
Bands of rain will move across the UK on Wednesday before the weather takes a turn for the worst in some areas at the end of the week.
Potential for a Deep Low Pressure System
Weather models suggest there is the potential for the jet stream to guide a deep area of low pressure across the UK by Friday. In addition to heavy rain, gales or even severe gales will be wrapped around the deep low.
At present, most computer models take the centre of the low pressure system across the south of the UK. The highest risk of disruptive winds would be over southernmost parts of England and Wales and possibly some eastern coastal counties of England later on Friday. Such a track would leave Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland with quieter weather conditions.
However, some computer models show the deep low taking a more northerly track. If this happens, then gales and disruption could be expected more widely with impacts also in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The uncertainty of the track means the forecast could change, and it is important to keep across any potential Met Office weather warnings.