Climate Change Could Triple Area Hit By European Wildfires: Study
Fahad Shabbir (@FahadShabbir) | August 20, 2026
BRUSSELS, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News / WAM – 20th Aug, 2026) Climate change could nearly triple the area of land hit by wildfires every year in Europe, according to a study.
The warning comes amidst devastating wildfires ravaging the continent, fueled by record-breaking dry conditions and scorching summers in countries like Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain.
Wildfires may become increasingly unpredictable and could overwhelm even regions with prior experience managing them, the study emphasizes.
“Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe,” said lead author Maik Billing, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “Our results indicate there could be widespread increases in burned area even under comparatively low (global) warming of around 1.8 deg C.”
The study projects that by the end of the century, with low greenhouse gas emissions, approximately 39% more land would burn annually compared to today’s average. This figure is based on one of two fire models used in the research. The second model suggests a potential decrease in burned areas under low-level global warming but researchers caution that it relies on historical data which may not be indicative of future trends.
"Under increasingly extreme fire-weather conditions, fire behavior may become more unpredictable and fires may overwhelm even well-developed firefighting capacities," Billing told AFP.
The findings are clear in the event of significant greenhouse gas emissions. “If we emit more, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6 deg C, we see fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, including areas that to date have not experienced many fires,” Billing explained.
Under a high-emission scenario, nearly 192% more land would burn annually by 2100 – almost tripling the current affected area.
However, the study’s authors note that improved fire management practices could “substantially moderate” these increases. They estimate that better strategies could reduce burned areas by 72% to 92% compared to scenarios without improvements. Yet, this mitigating effect would be limited in the event of severe global warming.
“If Europe increases investment in wildfire management – training fire crews, proper equipment, good coordination etc – our projections show that this can make a significant difference,” said co-author Thomas Hickler. “But if fires become really extreme, our ability to contain them might break down and we do not know yet where this point is," he added.
