El Niño set to be ‘strongest in living memory’, says Met Office – BBC Weather
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The El Niño event developing over the Pacific Ocean is expected to be the strongest in living memory, according to the Met Office. This powerful natural climate phenomenon raises global temperatures and intensifies extreme weather risks.
Combined with human-induced climate change, it is "very likely" 2027 will be the hottest year on record, they warn. Evidence suggests weather patterns worldwide are already changing, from below-average monsoon rains in India to reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean.
El Niño could increase the risk of a wet and stormy autumn in the UK.
"We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event," said Prof. Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office. "I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts."
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural weather pattern occurring roughly every two to seven years, lasting around a year. Trade winds across the Pacific Ocean weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to spread eastward. This releases heat into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns.
Scientists declare an El Niño when sea surface temperatures in a key area of the Pacific are 0.5°C or more above average. Current measurements show they’re well over 2°C above normal.
The Met Office predicts these anomalies could exceed 3°C later this year as El Niño nears its peak, breaking records dating back to 1950.
"We have many months to go while this event continues to develop," said Dr. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, "and that’s one of the reasons we’ve increased confidence this will be a record-setting event." Some projections even suggest a peak of 4°C above average, potentially making it "the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years".
Global Impacts:
El Niño’s effects span the globe. Changes in ocean heat distribution and wind patterns can cause wide-ranging weather shifts:
- Reduced rainfall in South Asia, especially during the southwest monsoon.
- Decreased hurricane activity in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic.
- Potential for intense storms and flooding in other regions close to the tropical Pacific.
