Law enforcement reduces small boat crossings, NCA says
The National Crime Agency (NCA) attributes a 41% decrease in small boat crossings to increased law enforcement activity this year.
According to government figures, the first half of 2026 saw a sharp drop in people arriving in the UK by small boat compared to the previous year. The NCA cites a "significant increase in arrests and seizures" as a key factor in this decline.
They also acknowledge the role of "fluctuating demand" and actions by French authorities preventing boat launches.
However, a senior researcher at the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory, Mihnea Cuibus, argues it’s "impossible" to isolate the effects of government policy from other factors contributing to the drop in crossings. He suggests reduced unauthorized arrivals to the EU, improvements in security in origin countries like Syria, and policy changes affecting smugglers and migrants could all play a part.
NCA director general of operations Rob Jones emphasizes the agency’s dedication to tackling organized immigration crime, highlighting the seizure of over 1,600 boats or engines since late 2023 and the jailing of a key supplier.
Yet, the NCA acknowledges that the war in the Middle East has also hindered criminals’ ability to source dinghies, making it a more difficult environment for illegal crossings.
