UK Weather: Will a September Heatwave Follow This Week’s Rain?
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Rain arrives for some but is another UK heatwave on the way in September?
Image source: Getty Images
By Simon King, Lead Weather Presenter
Published 19 August 2026, 01:21 BST
Updated 57 minutes ago
While wet weather is forecast for many this week, some long-range forecasts are suggesting further dry and sunny spells in September. Many of us have experienced the first bit of rain in around two months as the weather turned more unsettled on Tuesday. This change in weather patterns will also bring lower temperatures through this week, perhaps falling to around 2 to 4C below the mid-August average.
The prospect of cooler weather has led to speculation about the possibility of another heatwave – the sixth of the year – developing in September.
Rain arrives for some
Although heavy showers are expected for many this week, the places across England and Wales most in need of significant rain may not see much of it in the coming days. The dry spell at Wisley in Surrey, which had recorded 62 days without measurable rain, ended overnight. Much of the UK will see a mixture of sunshine and showers on Wednesday. Across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, the showers will be heavy, thundery and prolonged at times. Further south, the showers will be more scattered.
Thursday and Friday will see further showers, some heavy and thundery. England and Wales will see some prolonged and slow-moving downpours, with the potential for flash flooding. However, a few days of rain will not be enough to alleviate the drought in two thirds of England and all of Wales and there are indications that further hot and dry spells could follow in autumn.
Has the hot weather of summer 2026 finally passed?
Published 1 day ago
How soon will the drought be over?
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A summer of heatwaves
It has been an exceptional summer so far with the Met Office saying it is likely to be the hottest on record. Even with cooler conditions this week, the mean average temperature would need to be considerably below average for the last two weeks of August, to keep 2026 from surpassing the record set just last year.
The hotter-than-average summer with an increased likelihood of heat spikes and heatwaves was predicted by the Met Office and MeteoGroup – the BBC’s weather data providers – back in June.
Image source: PA Media
Image caption: Water levels at the Llwyn-On reservoir in South Wales got so low during the hot, dry summer that they revealed an old stone bridge.
Meteorological summer ends on 31 August. This is because meteorologists split the year into four even quarters, each made up of three months, for ease of record keeping and statistical analysis. Long range forecasts are now looking ahead to meteorological autumn – the months of September, October and November.
As autumn marks the transition from the warmth of summer to the colder conditions of winter, this can be a trickier season to make broader predictions for. There are however a few factors that could point to another warm spell in September.
Dry soil and marine heat ‘load the dice’
Image source: Earth Nullschool
Image caption: Sea surface temperature anomalies around the UK are around 3C – yellow shade – above average for the time of year.
Computer forecast models are suggesting that high pressure may become established to the south of the UK through the first part of September. This could bring dry and sunny conditions, with temperatures higher than average.
