El Niño set to be ‘strongest in living memory’, says Met Office – BBC Weather
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The El Niño event developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest in living memory, according to the Met Office. This powerful natural climate phenomenon raises global temperatures and intensifies extreme weather risks. Combined with human-induced climate change, it is "very likely" that 2027 will be the hottest year on record.
There is growing evidence of its impact worldwide: below-average monsoon rains in India and reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. El Niño could bring the UK a wetter, stormier autumn.
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” said Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office. “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”
What is El Niño?
El Niño occurs approximately every two to seven years, lasting about a year. It involves a weakening or reversal of typical east-to-west trade winds across the Pacific Ocean, allowing warm water to spread eastward. This releases heat into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures and altering rainfall patterns.
Scientists declare El Niño when sea surface temperatures in a key area of the Pacific Ocean are 0.5°C or more above average. Current measurements show they are well over 2°C above normal, with predictions suggesting they could exceed 3°C later this year as the event nears its peak—unprecedented since records began in 1950 and potentially the strongest event since the 19th century.
"We have many months to go while this event continues to develop," said Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth. "If that came to pass, ‘It’s not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years,’" he added.
Global Weather Impacts
El Niño alters heat distribution across the ocean and wind patterns above, leading to wide-ranging weather effects worldwide. Its impacts vary from event to event, but there is evidence of current global effects:
- Suppressed rainfall in South Asia during the southwest monsoon.
- Reduced hurricane activity in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic.
