How will El Niño affect the weather in the UK? – BBC Weather
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Stormy autumn, cold winter – how might El Niño affect the UK weather?
Whilst no two events are the same, the current developing El Niño could mean a greater chance of stormy autumn weather in the UK. [File image of Storm Herminia which hit the UK in January 2025](Image caption…)
By Ben Rich
Lead Weather Presenter
Published 21 August 2026, 14:02 BST
Updated 2 hours ago
El Niño is developing right now across the Pacific Ocean – thousands of miles away from the UK. Its most profound impacts may well be centred around this area, with increased risk of flooding and landslides in Peru and Ecuador, and threat of droughts and wildfires in Australia. However, disruption to global wind patterns means the impacts will ripple globally.
The Met Office says the UK weather is likely to be affected, with growing chance of wet and stormy autumn and early winter.
No two El Niños are the same – so while it may increase the chance of certain types of weather, this is not guaranteed.
El Niño set to be ‘strongest in living memory’, says Met Office (Published 1 hour ago)
Storms likely by November:
"I have not seen an event like this developing in our forecasts before", said Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasts at the Met Office. He adds that the scale of the growing El Niño is unprecedented in modern climate records. As it approaches its peak by the end of 2026, its influence around the world will grow.
After a summer that looks set to be the UK’s hottest on record and with drought conditions continuing, a wet autumn sounds like good news. However, we know that climate change is making increasingly intense rainfall more likely, and so these storms and downpours will also bring the threat of flooding. Strong winds could also cause damage, transport disruption and power cuts.
The winter of 2015 and 2016, which coincided with a very strong El Niño, brought a succession of major storms delivering what experts described as the most extreme flooding on record.
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Figure caption:
[Watch: How does El Niño affect world weather?](Link to video not provided)
Could it be a cold winter?
El Niño can be associated with cold spells in late winter, but the link is not strong and past evidence is mixed. The so-called Big Freeze of winter 2009/2010 was, at the time, the coldest in three decades – and this coincided with an El Niño. However, 2006/2007 was also an El Niño winter and that was unseasonably warm.
The further forecasters look into the future the more uncertain the prospects become. So while El Niño may increase the chance of cold weather early in 2027, this is not guaranteed.
Image source: Reuters
Image caption: Storm Floris brought strong winds to parts of the UK in 2025, with gusts of up to 80mph.**
What about next summer?
Globally, a very strong El Niño typically lifts average temperatures by 0.2C. This may not sound like much, but on top of the heating effect of human-induced climate change it will increase the risks of heatwaves around the world. However, El Niño’s effects are not the same in each individual place, and the links to hot weather in the UK are not clear.
